AI 2027 Was Too Late: The Forecasters Now Expect a Superhuman AI Researcher Next Year
The forecasters behind AI 2027, the most famous prediction of how AI takes over AI research, walked their dates back to the 2030s. Now a new METR report on Anthropic's internal models has pulled them forward again: they think they were five months too late. Ejaaz breaks down what the AI Futures Project now expects, an AI as good as the best AI researcher in 2027 and a 35 to 65% chance of AI that can do all white-collar work before 2028, and why the people closest to it say they're scared.
We also cover why the models doing this aren't the ones you can use, the labs' calls to pace the frontier, the case against (redacted evidence, chips and power, Apollo's "zero financial payoff"), what Fermat, Signal and new math results say about 2027, and where Ejaaz lands.
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Timestamps
00:00 Superintelligence Has a Date Now
01:09 The 1% and the 99%
01:50 What AI 2027 Predicted
03:04 Five Months Too Late
03:30 The Headline Numbers
05:28 It's Already Happening
07:09 Pace the Frontier
08:15 The Models You Can't Use
09:04 Why the Labs Hold Back
10:44 It's Not Your Fault
11:10 The Case Against
13:27 Can We Trust the Forecast?
13:54 2027 in Miniature
16:36 The Skeptic's View
17:46 Where I Land
#ai #ai2027 #superintelligence #anthropic #agi
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We also cover why the models doing this aren't the ones you can use, the labs' calls to pace the frontier, the case against (redacted evidence, chips and power, Apollo's "zero financial payoff"), what Fermat, Signal and new math results say about 2027, and where Ejaaz lands.
==
FOLLOW EJAAZ ON TWITTER:
https://x.com/cryptopunk7213
==
Timestamps
00:00 Superintelligence Has a Date Now
01:09 The 1% and the 99%
01:50 What AI 2027 Predicted
03:04 Five Months Too Late
03:30 The Headline Numbers
05:28 It's Already Happening
07:09 Pace the Frontier
08:15 The Models You Can't Use
09:04 Why the Labs Hold Back
10:44 It's Not Your Fault
11:10 The Case Against
13:27 Can We Trust the Forecast?
13:54 2027 in Miniature
16:36 The Skeptic's View
17:46 Where I Land
#ai #ai2027 #superintelligence #anthropic #agi
==
AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance: A Professional-Grade Investment Platform Built for Everyday Investors.
👉 https://finance.yahoo.com/about/promos/gold/alphaspace/?ncid=100003571
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