Understanding The Past Year in AI: 200th Episode Special!

Ejaaz:
Welcome officially to our 200th episode.

Ejaaz:
1.4 million words has been spoken by us and 99.9% of it has been Josh and I

Ejaaz:
arguing about who has the most compute, who has the better AI model,

Ejaaz:
or which is the best AI company to invest in.

Ejaaz:
Now, before we started this episode, we did something a little dangerous.

Ejaaz:
We gave Claude and ChatGPT access to our entire 200 transcriptions for all of our episodes.

Ejaaz:
And we got it to identify any hidden investment themes in AI that we might potentially

Ejaaz:
have missed, all our favorite quotes and bets that we've made over the last

Ejaaz:
year, as well as where the AI puck is going.

Ejaaz:
This is going to be a jam-packed episode of information that we ourselves didn't

Ejaaz:
know, but Claude and ChatGPT helped us figure out.

Josh:
It's pretty cool. We gave our entire episode database to this model and said

Josh:
like, hey, kind of roast us, come up with some themes, come up with some trends.

Josh:
And just to backtrack a little bit of the world 14 months ago,

Josh:
when we first hit record on the first episode and how much has changed.

Josh:
I mean, at that time, SpaceX was private. They were worth $350 billion.

Josh:
Now they're public worth over $2 trillion. Anthropic was worth $61 billion.

Josh:
Now they're worth roughly a trillion. I mean, the multiples on these companies

Josh:
are huge. This is when OpenAI was worth only $300 billion. ChatGPT had about half a billion users.

Josh:
That has since tripled and doubled. And the models, the funniest thing is the models.

Josh:
GPT4R0 is the flagship model. We had Cloud 3.7 and Gemini 2.5.

Josh:
And then most surprisingly, everything was coded by hand.

Josh:
At the time of first recording the first episode, nearly all code written around

Josh:
us that created all the software in the world was written by hand.

Josh:
The inverse is true. So so much stuff has happened over the last 14 months.

Josh:
It's kind of hard to wrap your head around, But that's what we're going to do

Josh:
now, is we're going to cover retroactively the things that have happened over

Josh:
the last year, and then proactively where things are going based on all the

Josh:
trends that we've evaluated over the last 14 months.

Ejaaz:
So firstly, I want us to take a victory lap on the bets or predictions that we made

Ejaaz:
early on in our career, back all the way back in 2025, that ended up becoming

Ejaaz:
true both from an investment perspective and as a general trend playing out in the AI market.

Ejaaz:
And then what we're going to get into is what that investment portfolio would

Ejaaz:
have looked like if Limitless had hundreds of millions of dollars and we could

Ejaaz:
have invested in some of these companies to start off with.

Ejaaz:
So Josh, if you remember week number four, June 5th of 2025,

Ejaaz:
we said verbatim, compute is now a matter of national security.

Ejaaz:
Whoever owns the watts, the chips,

Ejaaz:
the energy, the cooling owns the economic rents. The point that we were making

Ejaaz:
back then was essentially compute is king.

Ejaaz:
Whoever owns the GPUs, whoever can power them will build the best model.

Ejaaz:
Now, fast forward 200 episodes later, this is more true than ever.

Ejaaz:
Anthropic has signed, I think, four new compute deals over the last couple of months.

Ejaaz:
You've got OpenAI expanding aggressively. Their big bet on acquiring as much

Ejaaz:
compute as they can has turned out to be really, really good.

Ejaaz:
They're not putting any kind of restrictions or limits on any users for any of their models.

Ejaaz:
And it has become the key thing that is serving this thing called inference,

Ejaaz:
which is helping people become smarter, run their AI agents 24-7.

Ejaaz:
Computer's king. That was one of our first bets that we made.

Josh:
You know what I just looked up is at the time that we said that, SanDisk is up 3,500%.

Ejaaz:
Let's go.

Josh:
Some crazy outrageous number. But yeah, it was so true. It was really early and true.

Josh:
And I think that's still the case. And if you told the people from June 2025 that

Josh:
the federal government was going to be invested in these companies like Intel,

Josh:
that the amount of run-ups were going to be this large, like 35 times your money,

Josh:
well, certainly we would have invested, but we also would have been pretty surprised

Josh:
at how important this race to compute is.

Josh:
The most scarce resource in the world right now is this energy to power on these

Josh:
GPUs and to get memory for them. And to notice that early was amazing. I wish we acted on that.

Ejaaz:
I know. The other asymmetric bet that we made was on AI chips, specifically memory.

Ejaaz:
Now, Josh, if you remember, we had a predictions episode at the end of last

Ejaaz:
year, and we had this kind of general thesis, which is memory is quite expensive.

Ejaaz:
It's a large component of the whole entire AI thing. You need to power your

Ejaaz:
GPUs, you needed to remember everything that you have in your conversation with

Ejaaz:
ChatGPT and Claude, this will probably end up going up higher in terms of pricing,

Ejaaz:
which means that the memory stocks themselves will probably perform very well.

Ejaaz:
Since then, guess what the average

Ejaaz:
return has been on the top three memory manufacturers? Just have a guess.

Josh:
A gazillion dollars? It's infinite. It must be the single best investment that

Josh:
you could have made in the last year.

Ejaaz:
It's not a gazillion, but it's pretty close. It was 153%. If you'd bought Micro

Ejaaz:
by the end of last year, you'd be up around 180%.

Ejaaz:
If you had bought SK Hynix, if you were in Korea, if you had access to Samsung

Ejaaz:
as well, SK Hynix has become the most valuable company in Korea.

Ejaaz:
It's eclipsed Samsung, who's been kind of like the monopoly for the entire last

Ejaaz:
couple of decades. It's just very, very impressive.

Josh:
Actually, Samsung just became the most profitable company in the world over NVIDIA.

Ejaaz:
Oh, yes. I saw that. I saw that.

Josh:
So it's crazy. There's this all-out war and this race to the top,

Josh:
and these companies are just like continuing to topple each other over and over and over again.

Ejaaz:
Okay, so if it's not investments, Josh, I want us to kind of like have like

Ejaaz:
a thesis call that we kind of nailed.

Ejaaz:
Now, in March 20, 2026, so not too long ago, we said, this might be a really

Ejaaz:
asymmetric bet, but I wish I could buy OpenAI stock right now,

Ejaaz:
because there's a company that could sit on top of that.

Ejaaz:
And it's called Cursor. What's happened since then to.

Josh:
That little company? That's so nuts. three months later that same company got

Josh:
purchased by spacex for 60 billion dollars my god should we just like we need

Josh:
to start running a funder we need a

Ejaaz:
Fund does anyone want to like.

Josh:
Invest with us if we just invested the money that we had into these stocks we probably would have had

Josh:
a pretty sizable portfolio to begin with but there is a really exciting segment

Josh:
that i want to get into now that i have been waiting for so long to talk about

Josh:
which is the limitless portfolio if those of you for those of you who've been

Josh:
around for a very long time you know that in the early days of Limitless,

Josh:
we actually recorded a lot of interviews.

Josh:
We had on guests on the show who were building really cool frontier technology.

Josh:
And those were very particularly selected. We were excited about a few specific companies.

Josh:
Those companies we reached out to got the CEOs, the founders on the show.

Josh:
And if we took all those companies and we put money in them on the day that

Josh:
we recorded with those founders to today, the total return on that investment

Josh:
would have been about 4x in just over a year, which I think is really noteworthy. It would have taken

Josh:
A 13x multiple on our best performer, which is Valor Atomics.

Josh:
If we go back to episode 10, we had the CEO of Valor Atomics,

Josh:
Isaiah Taylor. For those who haven't watched, we actually reposted it because it was so good.

Josh:
And I would recommend checking it out because he was the person who's responsible

Josh:
for building small modular nuclear reactors.

Josh:
The obvious flaw here was that data centers don't have enough energy and his plan was to solve it.

Josh:
We had them on just after their seed round, and now they're valued at $2 billion, a 13x multiple.

Josh:
Same thing happened with OpenRouter and the founder, Alex Atala.

Josh:
At the time, they were half a billion dollars now they are 1.3 same thing with

Josh:
zipline drone delivery that was a really cool one where they were showing early

Josh:
prototypes of what the drone delivery

Josh:
system looks like and now it's actually being used in a lot of major cities

Josh:
same with perplexity 1.2 and then boom supersonic is the one anomaly they're

Josh:
the company that was making supersonic airplanes if you remember

Josh:
they've actually pivoted to making turbines so they're making supersonic airplanes

Josh:
but now they're also making gas turbines for these ai data centers so i thought

Josh:
this is really cool to see how large of a return we've had on some of the guests

Josh:
that we've had on the show.

Josh:
And if we just invested the Limitless Fund on day one of having all these people

Josh:
on, we would have returned about 4x in the last year.

Josh:
And that's only with private market valuations. Unfortunately,

Josh:
none of these are public, but all pretty interesting investment opportunities.

Ejaaz:
Yeah, I think it's amazing to think about like a 400% return relative to like

Ejaaz:
the average market, which has gone up pretty insanely, but that would have been,

Ejaaz:
Lovely to get access to. I would have taken that. I would have taken it.

Ejaaz:
I think another thing that this theoretical portfolio shows us is the key trends

Ejaaz:
that have developed over the last year.

Ejaaz:
And I want to spend a moment to describe them very quickly, because I think

Ejaaz:
it shows us where the puck is going in AI and from an investment perspective

Ejaaz:
and from just a general trend and model usage perspective going forward.

Ejaaz:
So with Valor Atomics, it's an energy thing, right? So you have all these GPUs,

Ejaaz:
you have all these expensive data centers, but we can't quite get the power

Ejaaz:
to get access to a bunch of these different things.

Ejaaz:
Nuclear is an incredibly important facet of energy that will kind of like feed

Ejaaz:
into a bunch of these things and eventually bring or run and operate a bunch of these things online.

Ejaaz:
Now, on Open Router specifically, we've covered this thesis a few times, which is...

Ejaaz:
We have all these different models. I don't think a company is going to get

Ejaaz:
married to one particular model. I think they're going to use multiple models

Ejaaz:
for multiple different things, use cases, etc.

Ejaaz:
That's the whole point around the cursor thesis. That's why SpaceX acquired them for $60 billion.

Ejaaz:
Open Router is pretty much the next best bet. They launch or stealth launch

Ejaaz:
models before they actually become official. They've done it with Clawed.

Ejaaz:
They've done it with ChatGPT. And they've done it with a bunch of Chinese models.

Ejaaz:
And developers can get unrelentless access to all these types of models and

Ejaaz:
use it for whatever that they want.

Ejaaz:
Now, a key bit of data that they aggregate is intense, and they can use this

Ejaaz:
intense to figure out what better models to build.

Ejaaz:
Perplexity has absolutely nailed it. Like, look at this. I know it isn't the

Ejaaz:
biggest multiple jump, but like $18 billion to $21 billion, this is primarily

Ejaaz:
because Samsung has made their product the primary AI agent on all of their phones going forwards.

Ejaaz:
It's just, you know, it's not just a portfolio return that we're talking about here.

Ejaaz:
There's some major trends that have been developing that are feeding into what

Ejaaz:
we might expect for an investment perspective going forwards.

Josh:
So over the last 14 months, the trends have changed pretty considerably as well.

Josh:
Things that we mentioned a lot now mostly no longer exist. And these turning

Josh:
tides are interesting to see visualized here.

Josh:
One of the things that we mentioned a lot in 2025 was superintelligence.

Josh:
That's now down, what is that, 90%. We mentioned it just about 60 times last year.

Josh:
We've mentioned it six this year. And this is about accurate because we recorded

Josh:
for about six months last year, about six months this year. So it's right down the middle.

Josh:
The biggest loser also is crypto, which we've mentioned basically zero because,

Josh:
you know, it's in a bit of a winter right now, not doing super hot.

Josh:
Robotics, surprisingly, has gone down 60% year over year, as well as AGI going

Josh:
down 54%. So I think a lot of those broad sweeping terms, we mentioned less

Josh:
probably because it feels like it's just close to being here.

Josh:
And the lines have gotten so fuzzy that we're not actually sure what to even

Josh:
define as AGI, what to define as super intelligence.

Josh:
Like you look at these new mythos class models, you're like,

Josh:
I don't know, that kind of looks like AGI to me, but the robotics part has been

Josh:
interesting to me at least because it seems like we are in this like kind of...

Josh:
Weird middle ground of robotics where a lot of companies are building them but

Josh:
they haven't quite launched

Josh:
what they're building just yet we have the new optimist robot that's coming

Josh:
it hasn't been revealed figure has been working on their new robot hasn't quite

Josh:
been revealed everyone's working behind the scenes and i assume those big reveals

Josh:
are coming sometime later this year

Josh:
and when that happens we'll probably have this big resurgence of robotics but

Josh:
i found that really interesting another really interesting one was the word

Josh:
anthropic oh my god what a year that company has had uh last year we mentioned them

Josh:
i think one-fourth the amount that we did of open AI and chat GPT this year it's gone up 4x

Josh:
we mentioned that company four times more and it's probably because I mean a

Josh:
year ago things weren't looking super hot I remember we were looking at this

Josh:
was like early opus like 3.7

Josh:
Days and we were like yeah it's not that great like chat GPT just rocks it has

Josh:
a really awesome consumer application and my god did this company turn around this year

Josh:
It has now flipped OpenAI in terms of mentions on the show with 806 to 758,

Josh:
Which is cool. I love that we get this granular ability to see all the stuff

Josh:
using, ironically, Claude.

Ejaaz:
These things move so quickly. Remember, Claude code is only,

Ejaaz:
I think it's just over a year old, which is like mind-blowing because at the

Ejaaz:
end of the last year, barely anyone used Claude code and now everyone uses it.

Ejaaz:
There's also a lot of the few key trends that I've noticed have risen in the last couple of months.

Ejaaz:
We're speaking about IPOs quite a bit on this show. We're talking about memory

Ejaaz:
quite a bit. And it's unsurprising at this point because we have probably the

Ejaaz:
biggest year for net new IPOs. We had SpaceX, we're expecting Anthropic,

Ejaaz:
and OpenAI potentially by the end of this year.

Ejaaz:
And then, of course, the memory companies, as we mentioned earlier,

Ejaaz:
have been absolutely killing it on 80% margins at this point.

Ejaaz:
Samsung just had a blowout quarter as well.

Ejaaz:
You mentioned earlier being more profitable than NVIDIA. So a lot of these general

Ejaaz:
themes are replacing some of the more vague themes that we had earlier.

Ejaaz:
So AGI superintelligence, we don't quite know what that means.

Ejaaz:
When we talk about like robotics, I think if I had to bet going forwards,

Ejaaz:
that's going to flip over the next couple of months, because we have a bunch

Ejaaz:
of new US-based robotic startups that are starting to sell their hardware to

Ejaaz:
a bunch of different people going forwards.

Ejaaz:
And then the anthropic flip is kind of expected. I think you and I use Claude

Ejaaz:
pretty religiously at this point. I haven't used GPT for a while,

Ejaaz:
rumored to be releasing GPT 5.6 Sol to the wider public, potentially today.

Ejaaz:
If you're listening you might already have access to it, could be pretty cool.

Ejaaz:
I think one of the most interesting charts is this one that I'm showing on the

Ejaaz:
screen here, which is the company, the AI company specifically,

Ejaaz:
the model lab that we have mentioned the most over the last 200 episodes.

Ejaaz:
And it's surprisingly not OpenAI.

Ejaaz:
It's not Anthropic, but it's Google. Do you remember Google?

Josh:
Google is that company. Yeah, I remember obsession with Google.

Ejaaz:
Yeah, yeah. It's this company that's kind of been around for a while.

Ejaaz:
They dominate the search engine space.

Ejaaz:
And they kind of are the only company that has a verticalized stack in AI.

Ejaaz:
They create their own version of GPUs called TPUs.

Ejaaz:
They have applications to disperse their AI models and they have their most

Ejaaz:
famous AI model called Gemini.

Ejaaz:
But Google's kind of fallen off since then. And I wonder if we see the flippening

Ejaaz:
soon with either OpenAI or Anthropic.

Josh:
I mean, I think those numbers are a little tweaked because we were obsessed

Josh:
with Google for a few months and rightfully so.

Josh:
They had some unbelievable product velocity. They were releasing things seemingly

Josh:
every single week and they're all pretty hit features

Josh:
that has since changed and yeah like you mentioned I think we certainly have

Josh:
this flip happening where really the two main players in the space right now

Josh:
are open AI and Anthropic and

Josh:
that seems like it's gonna be that way for the foreseeable future perhaps we get

Josh:
a comeback player of the year with Grok we'll see I know that the SpaceX AI

Josh:
team which is now fully rebranded is working very hard to make this happen in

Josh:
terms of this momentum map it's pretty interesting to see that we kind of have

Josh:
These new emerging sectors that we haven't quite discussed just yet,

Josh:
one of them being quantum.

Josh:
Quantum seems to be the next lane, according to things that we've said,

Josh:
and according to this chat of being the new thing that we're maximally excited

Josh:
about. Things like drug discovery, biology, memory, IPOs, bubbles.

Josh:
Those are all things that are very much accelerating.

Josh:
The contrarian corner, which I'm not sure I agree with this totally,

Josh:
has energy inside of it. I think energy is certainly accelerating as well.

Josh:
Energy is, as always, the single bottleneck.

Josh:
And even in the absence of ai acceleration energy is still the constraint to

Josh:
pretty much everything that we do but noteworthy in the cooling sector we have

Josh:
um open ai there which i was like a little disappointed to see i'm like man

Josh:
what do you mean opening is cooling but then i think about the last couple months

Josh:
it's been a little bit slow in open ai land they have these three new models

Josh:
which they've been waiting to release i know the company is taking their summer

Josh:
break this week they haven't quite gotten it out the government's been putting holds on it

Josh:
the application hasn't quite gotten much better.

Josh:
I know kind of after Codex for me, OpenAI has kind of fallen flat in terms of

Josh:
their new feature releases. So you have to assume they're cooking up a lot of

Josh:
stuff, but within the last month or two,

Josh:
Which seems like the last year or two, they have been moving a little bit slower

Josh:
than I think we would have liked. And I hope that they'll be able to turn that around pretty soon.

Ejaaz:
Yeah, if I had to identify three themes that have become more apparent over

Ejaaz:
the last couple of months that I think are important to keep an eye on going forwards.

Ejaaz:
One is the increasing use of outer space to train models. Now,

Ejaaz:
I remember the first time we mentioned StarCloud, which is this small startup

Ejaaz:
that came out of Y Combinator.

Ejaaz:
And they launched a bunch of GPUs into space and they started training models

Ejaaz:
off of an H-100 set of GPUs from NVIDIA.

Ejaaz:
Fast forward now, it's SpaceX AI's entire thesis that they're going to launch

Ejaaz:
all these satellites out there and train models, presumably Grok and many others going forwards.

Ejaaz:
This has become an increasingly strong theme that I think will play out more

Ejaaz:
and more over the next couple of years. And I think SpaceX is going to be the one to lead it.

Ejaaz:
The second thing is applications of these AI models into niche categories.

Ejaaz:
Now, I think one thing that has become apparent to me is generalized LLMs are

Ejaaz:
amazing. They're great chatbots.

Ejaaz:
But when applied to specific niche sectors where you kind of need some expert

Ejaaz:
knowledge, they aren't that very good.

Ejaaz:
So when you look at Anthropic and OpenAI over the last couple of months,

Ejaaz:
they've started their own joint ventures. They've raised billions of dollars

Ejaaz:
to place their engineers in these companies and figure out the best solutions to build.

Ejaaz:
I think the two sectors that they're going to be focused on going forwards is finance.

Ejaaz:
And you mentioned earlier, the drug discovery, biology, science accelerated side of things.

Ejaaz:
And I think we're going to see a bunch of really cool products and features

Ejaaz:
being released over the next six months or until the rest of the year.

Ejaaz:
You've got Anthropic that's already released, Claude Science.

Ejaaz:
You've got OpenAI that's already released their gene benchmark.

Ejaaz:
I think OpenAI is the one that has bought and operating retro science labs,

Ejaaz:
which is working on a bunch of different cures. You've got Google that has as

Ejaaz:
their alpha-fold model that is genetically sequencing a bunch of different molecules

Ejaaz:
and creating new kind of drugs.

Ejaaz:
I am really excited personally about this because I have a bit of a science

Ejaaz:
background and I think that,

Ejaaz:
applying these models in ways that can really change human impact,

Ejaaz:
not necessarily for people who are using these models, are going to be huge.

Josh:
I'm like stoked for bio and life sciences and all that improvement.

Josh:
I think we are like very close to getting whatever AGI for science looks like very soon.

Josh:
I think that is going to be a huge category that we're going to see a lot of

Josh:
progress. You see all these labs working towards that.

Josh:
The thing I'm most excited about seeing is how we actually implement all of this intelligence.

Josh:
I think there is this asymmetry happening right now where a few companies are

Josh:
creating an unbelievably capable set of tools that are amazing and powerful.

Josh:
And the world now has to figure out how to extract value from them in their own ways.

Josh:
So when I look at the next 200 episodes, the thing I will be most closely watching

Josh:
is how the world's actually able

Josh:
to extract value from this new form of intelligence that we've created.

Josh:
Because there is this asymmetry where people are really afraid of job loss and

Josh:
people are really afraid of margins getting affected.

Josh:
And the reality is, is that most people, most companies haven't actually implemented this at all.

Josh:
If anything, like the real broad sweeping effects of this across the world have

Josh:
been so small on a relative basis to how powerful they've gotten that I think

Josh:
this dispersion over the next 200 episodes, maybe 14 months,

Josh:
or actually going quicker now.

Josh:
So maybe it'll take like 10 to 11 months to get the next 200 episodes.

Josh:
But the dispersion of this intelligence into day-to-day devices,

Josh:
into day-to-day companies, kind of reimagining what the average role at a company

Josh:
looks like using these new tools.

Josh:
That's what I'm particularly excited about. And then second to that is this energy problem, man.

Josh:
Whoever is going to solve this energy problem, who's ever going to be able to

Josh:
build and create more energy is going to be

Josh:
One of the most powerful companies on earth. We just have such a shortage of it regardless of AI.

Josh:
So I think when I think about whether or not we're in a bubble or where we are

Josh:
in the market cycle, I think those two things are kind of separate from whether

Josh:
or not memory stocks continue to go up, from whether or not NVIDIA continues to make better chips.

Josh:
It's how do we take what we have today and disperse it effectively throughout the world?

Josh:
And then how do we power all this new technology that we are working on creating?

Josh:
And those two problems are the ones that I am most excited about i'm most bullish on i am

Josh:
i guess most interested in and considering like when i think about this

Josh:
the implementation of it that comes in the form of robots we have atoms the

Josh:
new company from travis kalanick who is

Josh:
fully all in on getting precious metals turning those precious metals into robots

Josh:
that are now our use case and then using those robots to distribute materials

Josh:
throughout the world that is so cool we have tesla in the optimist robot program

Josh:
who's focused on building humanoid robots as a form factor and doing that at a scale that we saw

Josh:
for the Model 3 and Model Y, which is now the most popular and highest sold car in the world.

Josh:
So companies that are working on this, I am maximally bullish on and maximally

Josh:
excited about. And I think, yeah, over the next year, those are the things that

Josh:
I am very excited and looking out for.

Ejaaz:
Yeah, the magic is already here. It just hasn't been distributed well enough at this point.

Ejaaz:
When I think about key trends that are really tiny right now,

Ejaaz:
but are going to play out over the next, let's call it over the next 100 episodes,

Ejaaz:
maybe not 200, too ambitious. I don't know if I can predict that far ahead,

Ejaaz:
I think open source models, or let me correct myself, locally run models on

Ejaaz:
edge compute, smaller models that are hyper-optimized to serve you or a particular

Ejaaz:
use case, are going to become way, way, way more abundant.

Ejaaz:
And we're seeing some prime evidence of this happening right now.

Ejaaz:
We've seen big companies like Uber and the likes of Meta cut back on their AI

Ejaaz:
token spending and usage. Why?

Ejaaz:
Because it's quite expensive to use frontier models right now.

Ejaaz:
Now, Fable 5, we were talking about it before we started the show,

Ejaaz:
is $10 in and $50 out per million token input and outputs.

Ejaaz:
And that's expensive if you are burning through millions and millions and millions

Ejaaz:
of these tokens every single week.

Ejaaz:
I think people are going to opt for more locally run models,

Ejaaz:
whether these are Chinese open source models, whether they're American open

Ejaaz:
source models, or in Apple's case, they kind of train and fine tune their own

Ejaaz:
models that they run on their own local hardware.

Ejaaz:
I think we're going to see an acceleration and push towards new types of devices.

Ejaaz:
We're talking about open AI, releasing new devices by the end of the year.

Ejaaz:
We know Apple's working on that. We know a bunch of other companies are working

Ejaaz:
on their own versions of lenses, or whether that might be a pendant that sits

Ejaaz:
on your chest or whatever that might be.

Ejaaz:
And I think we're going to have a hyper-optimized world around smaller models

Ejaaz:
and hardware that listens and sees and hears everything that you do and see.

Ejaaz:
And the point of all of this is personal AI agents, which brings me to my second

Ejaaz:
point, which is, I think we're going to see a lot of people prompting less and

Ejaaz:
relying on AI to do the thing for them and figure out the problem for them.

Ejaaz:
There's this theme that we've spoken about a number of times over the last couple

Ejaaz:
of months, which is RSI, recursive self-improvement.

Ejaaz:
This is basically when an AI model is smart enough to know how to build the

Ejaaz:
next version of itself. Now, this is a really hard problem to crack,

Ejaaz:
but a bunch of really intelligent people have predicted that this is probably

Ejaaz:
going to come at the start of 2027, which is not too long away from here.

Ejaaz:
In the event that we have that that could assume that.

Ejaaz:
AI models can basically run 24 seven and do work for you whilst you sleep or

Ejaaz:
work on any of your problems, whatever that might be.

Ejaaz:
And I think in that world, we are going to increasingly rely on this AI to know

Ejaaz:
more about us, share more personal data with them. And it's kind of a,

Ejaaz:
a concern that I have, I guess, which is like, we're putting all our brainpower

Ejaaz:
into these AI agents and these AI models. I wonder how that kind of like maps

Ejaaz:
out going forwards. We don't know.

Ejaaz:
And then the third final trend that I think is going to play out is,

Ejaaz:
I think China is going to close source a bunch of their models coming soon.

Ejaaz:
There was news that broke this morning that the Chinese government has ordered

Ejaaz:
a bunch of their AI labs to basically cut off access, basically their version

Ejaaz:
of export controls, because they don't want,

Ejaaz:
the West or Americans in particular to get access to their models and so they

Ejaaz:
might move to pricing or they might just go completely private i don't think

Ejaaz:
this is for the benefit of the world

Ejaaz:
but it is increasingly become a geopolitical risk that i think will end up playing

Ejaaz:
out at least over the next six to twelve months.

Josh:
The one certainty is that the world's 100 episodes from now will look absolutely

Josh:
nothing like that today at least as it relates to the world of ai because we

Josh:
are on this accelerating curve and i think one of the things that we mentioned

Josh:
early on, we even had the guests on the show who wrote it was the AGI

Josh:
2027 paper, where it kind of projected the trajectories and timelines of how

Josh:
fast things were going to go.

Josh:
And so far, to their credit, a lot of that has actually happened in 100 episodes

Josh:
from now, brings us to the middle of 2027.

Josh:
And thinking about life in 2027, a year from now, like you talk about local

Josh:
models, EJs, we're going to be running mythos class models on our cell phones.

Josh:
And like, what are the downstream implications of that?

Josh:
What does the world look like when you truly have that amount of intelligence

Josh:
available at your fingertips on a mobile device? Does it matter that China is

Josh:
closed source because the models will be so powerful that most people don't

Josh:
actually need the upper echelon in order to accomplish their day-to-day tasks?

Josh:
And it's funny, as we're doing these episodes, it feels like because we're living

Josh:
in it, it doesn't progress that fast. But looking back at episode one to now,

Josh:
like, oh my God, the world is so different.

Josh:
And looking forward, now that we are aware that we do have the idea of like

Josh:
recursive self-improvement, that things can actually get perpetually better.

Josh:
And as they improve, they continue to improve themselves. And we get this machine

Josh:
that creates this vertical line of trajectory. I think it's gonna look...

Josh:
Pretty weird. And I hope that we're able to convert that into something useful.

Josh:
It's like, okay, we have all this intelligence. What do we do with it?

Josh:
How can we actually implement it throughout the world? What types of robotic

Josh:
figures can we put that into? What types of companies can we build because of it?

Josh:
How can you empower employees to do amazing things with it? It's like,

Josh:
these are the questions that I'm really excited to answer and to find the companies

Josh:
who are doing the best at answering those questions in particular.

Josh:
And then they're like companies, I'm thinking about Etched. I'm like,

Josh:
oh my God, if they can create the same amount of tokens for a tenth of the cost like

Josh:
what impact does that have on the world so there's a lot of really fun and crazy

Josh:
and exciting things coming down the pipe and we are going to continue along publishing

Josh:
four times a week we've been cooking um and yeah i think that's that's mostly

Josh:
the episode here is uh episode 200 dude what a journey it's been that's uh

Josh:
That's a lot of times click and record.

Ejaaz:
We were mere younglings at the start of this, Josh. We were doing two to three episodes a week.

Ejaaz:
We were still learning about a lot of the concepts that we speak about quite

Ejaaz:
frequently on the show today. We've come a long way, dude.

Ejaaz:
And I'm feeling pretty optimistic. And I guess that's the final point that I

Ejaaz:
want to mention is I'm unbearably optimistic about what the future is.

Ejaaz:
In fact, I have a stat for you that I could share up here, which is the amount

Ejaaz:
of times we have mentioned bullish over the last 200 episodes,

Ejaaz:
192 times versus bearish, just 68.

Ejaaz:
So the point is, Josh and myself are incredibly optimistic about the future.

Ejaaz:
I personally think that AI tools right now, no matter how scary,

Ejaaz:
intelligent they get, is going to result in an abundance or an explosion of.

Ejaaz:
Advancements in GDP, in advancements in science and new cures.

Ejaaz:
And the best part is I think it isn't going to be age-gapped.

Ejaaz:
I think you could be a 24-year-old that drops out of Harvard and builds the

Ejaaz:
most amazing chip that competes directly with NVIDIA.

Ejaaz:
Or you could be someone that is just learning science, AP science at school.

Ejaaz:
And you might use a model because you have a certain idea and you discover something

Ejaaz:
that NASA ends up sponsoring. That is exactly what happened to their current

Ejaaz:
intern that is working there right now.

Ejaaz:
So there's going to be an abundance and explosion of intelligence that is available

Ejaaz:
to anyone and everyone that can get access to these models.

Ejaaz:
And I think whether it's open source, whether it's private, whether it's a $20

Ejaaz:
a month membership, you will be able to participate in this optimistic future.

Ejaaz:
And I'm very, very excited about that potential fact.

Josh:
You can't just scroll to the section and not go through the rest.

Josh:
Bullish versus bearish index 2.8 to one.

Josh:
That's so funny. The absolutely insane index. EJAS has captured 23 of 28 mentions. It is insane.

Josh:
It has a subsection. It says ownership established beyond statistical doubt.

Josh:
And then for the exponential, I have captured 48 of those exponentials to 28.

Josh:
It says the house physicist has a favorite curve, which is pretty good.

Josh:
And then this is this is the set that i'm calling the the waffle index um and

Josh:
it's 38.9 versus 27.9 hours talks it says nearly identical turn counts one host

Josh:
turns run 40 longer the database knows who he

Ejaaz:
Just i think i'm sorry can i interrupt you who who might that be i don't know

Ejaaz:
um i don't really talk that much but uh yeah no i don't take i don't take up

Ejaaz:
the mic space that much i guess i'd like to think listen it's value it's as

Ejaaz:
much value as i can and also it's like.

Josh:
I just like that we could quantify it now exactly

Ejaaz:
My own recursive self-learning process that i have to subject all our listeners to what a.

Josh:
Journey what a freaking journey so that's 200 episodes in the books for anyone who's been here

Josh:
even like for the last 50 thank you for the ones who've been here since day

Josh:
one for the ones who have come over and joined us and been along this journey

Josh:
to support us like thank you this is pretty crazy the podcast mostly started

Josh:
as an accident uh david from bankless he was like hey do you want to like do

Josh:
your own podcast and I was like yeah I guess so and

Josh:
I said that and then I went away on a vacation for a week and I came back and

Josh:
we had a podcast and I was like okay I guess we're doing this and we did it and

Josh:
people really supported and they enjoyed it. And I think we've done some pretty

Josh:
amazing work so far. So thank you to everyone who's been a part of the journey.

Josh:
It's really been special.

Josh:
Like when I look back on everything, I'll be like, wow, that was a really cool

Josh:
part of life that we got to do and creating this amazing show.

Josh:
And it still feels very early days. There's so much left to cover.

Josh:
There's so much momentum still happening. There's so many special things worth

Josh:
talking about in the world of AI, but also just

Josh:
on the frontier of technology, which is originally the idea of limitless it's

Josh:
like it is this is exploring the frontier of all the things ai continues to

Josh:
be that hottest thing but there's so much more coming down the line that downstream

Josh:
of ai that i'm very excited to talk about and cover so

Josh:
that is that's the journey that's 200 for the real ones still listening for

Josh:
the real ones who've been watching forever like oh my god you're absolute legends

Josh:
thank you so much for being here it's like the only reason why this is possible

Josh:
the only reason why i've been able to do this for so long is because all of

Josh:
you um showing love and support every single episode.

Josh:
So sincerely, thank you so much for all of the support over this time.

Ejaaz:
Thank you, guys. And if you are listening to us right now and you aren't subscribed,

Ejaaz:
or if you haven't commented, or if you haven't given us a thumbs up ever, try it out today.

Ejaaz:
What better day to do it than on our 200th episode? It would be awesome to hear from you guys.

Josh:
Also, wait, we got to talk about our stats too. It's like, guys,

Josh:
we're a top 30 podcast in the world in technology. Like, this isn't just a look like...

Ejaaz:
No, open up Spotify. Open up the charts right now. Yeah, the boys are cooking.

Josh:
So I think that's not only have we done it for 200 episodes but you have given

Josh:
us enough support to put us on the top of the charts which is freaking awesome

Josh:
so that is really exciting that is really reassuring all good things to come

Josh:
any final parting thoughts before we wrap this up get ready for 201 thank you guys

Ejaaz:
For joining us on this journey and we will be here hopefully for the next 200

Ejaaz:
we are excited to bring you all the news and insights and trends that we can

Ejaaz:
possibly fathom even though I speak 40% longer it'll be worth it and we're excited

Ejaaz:
to see you very soon And we'll see.

Josh:
You on the next episode. Cheers to 200 more.

Ejaaz:
Cheers to 200 more. See you guys.

Understanding The Past Year in AI: 200th Episode Special!
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